Bread and Circuses

A personal blog. Notes, newsletters, and other public amusements.

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  1. Credit & Fed Desk: October 16, 2026

    Warsh said nothing on rates in Bangkok, and October hike odds fell to about 13–15% from about 28%, while the ten-year closed at 5.10%, its lowest close since September 22. Wednesday's spreads showed the stress: CCC at 12.82% and high yield at 325, the widest since March. The roughly $5B Volta AI loan priced wide, at SOFR+650 and 95 cents on the dollar.

  2. Credit & Fed Desk: October 15, 2026

    Producer prices posted their biggest jump since 2022, yet Treasuries rallied anyway, pulling the ten-year back to about 5.07% after it went above 5.3% on Wednesday's CPI. We cover the PPI details, the Beige Book, CoreWeave's bonds falling to distressed levels as the AI trade's weak link, plus banks, AI finance and a speculative stop with Arthur Hayes.

  3. Credit & Fed Desk: October 14, 2026

    September's core CPI ran a tenth hot, and the miss was broad-based. October hike odds jump to about a coin flip, a day after Williams said maybe one more. Plus the new pain point in Treasuries, Volta's deadline, the annuity money in private credit, and bank earnings.

  4. LOG Week 5

    Week 5 knocked the second zero off the board Lock in fn took its first loss, which leaves Team Robottom as the last unbeaten team in the league and the only one with nothing to explain.

  5. Credit & Fed Desk: October 13, 2026

    Same AI boom, two Fed diagnoses: Waller calls it real growth, Goolsbee says it's jumping out of its lane. Plus Hammack vs. Warsh on saying less, BlackRock moves to the front end, the private-vs-public BDC price gap, and CPI tomorrow.

  6. Credit & Fed Desk: October 12, 2026

    With bonds closed for Columbus Day, the ten-year real yield is up 45 bp since Sept 9, Hammack says higher yields are "absolutely not" a substitute for hikes, CCC stands alone at the wide end, and Wednesday's CPI decides October.

  7. Credit & Fed Desk: October 9, 2026

    Pimco's Dan Ivascyn calls a 6% 10-year "feasible" and flags 5.5% as where credit and stocks crack, El-Erian grades the Treasury's bid to hold down long yields, CCC spreads hit 12.52% with investment grade at 82, and the White House sets a closed Nov 5 hearing for Lisa Cook.

  8. Credit & Fed Desk: October 8, 2026

    The 10-year touches a 24-year high near 5.36% before a strong $39B auction at 5.30%, the Fed minutes point to another hike by year end, oil jumps 4%, and Oracle, Broadcom and SpaceX line up AI chip debt.

  9. Credit & Fed Desk: October 7, 2026

    AI debt in size (SpaceX $40bn, Broadcom $60bn), Dalio's classic bubble call, distressed loans at a March 2020 high, and FOMC minutes at 2 PM.

  10. LOG Week 4

    Week 4 emptied the winless bin. Four teams are 1-3, Robottom and Lock are still perfect, and the LOG prediction record moves to 8-6.

  11. Credit & Fed Desk: October 6, 2026

    Dual-record day: the 10-year breaks its 2007 high while the Nasdaq-100 clears 31,000. Fed, Treasuries, France, credit, and the AI money rush.

  12. LOG Week 3

    League of Ordinary Gentlemen Week 3: two perfect teams, Achane's ACL piles onto Prestige, Bowers sinks the AINTS, and the LOG prediction record hits 5-4.

  13. LOG Week 2

    League of Ordinary Gentlemen fantasy football newsletter.

  14. LOG Week 1

    League of Ordinary Gentlemen fantasy football newsletter.