Credit & Fed Desk: October 6, 2026

Two records fell on Monday, and they were records that aren't supposed to go together. The ten-year Treasury yield broke through its 2007 high, the level from the bond selloff that helped set off the Global Financial Crisis. That takes it to the highest since 2002. And on the same day, the Nasdaq-100 rose 0.9 percent and topped 31,000 for the first time ever.

John Authers put it in his headline: "A Top-Heavy Stocks Rally Is Daring Bond Yields to Break It." This morning there's a little relief on the ten-year, but Monday handed the hawks an early argument.

Show notes

• Fed: ISM services prices hit 74.0, highest since 2022, with passthrough risk rising ahead of CPI and the Oct 27–28 FOMC.
• Treasuries: 30-year around 5.7%, with a cheapest-to-deliver switch risk that can force duration selling in bond futures.
• France: 2027 budget lands today; OAT yields and the OAT–Bund spread stay in focus.
• Credit: an 11% AI-linked loan, a change-of-control fight on a mega buyout, and CMBS delinquency near a decade high.
• AI money rush and Arthur Hayes: equity concentration vs bond yields, plus the labeled Hayes segment.