Credit & Fed Desk: October 9, 2026
Good morning. It's Friday, October 9th, and you are listening to the Credit and Fed Desk.
The week's bond scare ends with a shrug and a warning. The shrug: Thursday's 30-year auction cleared at 5.618 percent, and the trackers' verdict was "in line." Then, at 12:17 in the afternoon Eastern time, the President posted that the United States will not attack Iran before the midterm elections on November 3rd. The ten-year yield, which had spiked to around 5.32 percent in the morning, slid back to roughly 5.22 to 5.24 by the close. This morning it's at 5.25.
Now the warning. Pimco's chief investment officer says a 6 percent ten-year is "feasible." Mohamed El-Erian says the Treasury's effort to hold long yields down has stumbled. And the CCC spread jumped to 12.52 percent, up about 41 basis points in three sessions, while investment grade sat at 82, barely moving. Firmus pulled its IPO. And the White House has scheduled a closed hearing for Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Show notes
- Fed: Waller's 'signaling option' for the dot plot, the other Greenspan (175 bp in 12 months), and a closed Nov 5 White House hearing for Governor Lisa Cook.
- Treasuries: El-Erian says the Treasury's buyback bid stumbled as yields rose about half a point; the 30-year auction clears 'on the screws' at 5.618%; Pimco's Ivascyn calls a 6% 10-year 'feasible.'
- Credit: high yield at 315 bp, CCC at 12.52% (up about 41 bp in three sessions) while investment grade sits at 82; private-credit stress depends on who's counting.
- AI capital: Firmus pulls its IPO, DayOne files for a US listing, and OpenAI's two-day revenue story.
- Arthur Hayes (labeled, speculative) on the wall of worry; French spreads ahead of the budget debate; the scoreboard and calendar.